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1.
Glob Chang Biol ; 30(4): e17279, 2024 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38619007

RESUMO

There are close links between solar UV radiation, climate change, and plastic pollution. UV-driven weathering is a key process leading to the degradation of plastics in the environment but also the formation of potentially harmful plastic fragments such as micro- and nanoplastic particles. Estimates of the environmental persistence of plastic pollution, and the formation of fragments, will need to take in account plastic dispersal around the globe, as well as projected UV radiation levels and climate change factors.


Assuntos
Energia Solar , Raios Ultravioleta , Raios Ultravioleta/efeitos adversos , Mudança Climática , Poluição Ambiental , Tempo (Meteorologia)
2.
PLoS One ; 19(4): e0300653, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38557860

RESUMO

Photonic radar, a cornerstone in the innovative applications of microwave photonics, emerges as a pivotal technology for future Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). Offering enhanced accuracy and reliability, it stands at the forefront of target detection and recognition across varying weather conditions. Recent advancements have concentrated on augmenting radar performance through high-speed, wide-band signal processing-a direct benefit of modern photonics' attributes such as EMI immunity, minimal transmission loss, and wide bandwidth. Our work introduces a cutting-edge photonic radar system that employs Frequency Modulated Continuous Wave (FMCW) signals, synergized with Mode Division and Wavelength Division Multiplexing (MDM-WDM). This fusion not only enhances target detection and recognition capabilities across diverse weather scenarios, including various intensities of fog and solar scintillations, but also demonstrates substantial resilience against solar noise. Furthermore, we have integrated machine learning techniques, including Decision Tree, Extremely Randomized Trees (ERT), and Random Forest classifiers, to substantially enhance target recognition accuracy. The results are telling: an accuracy of 91.51%, high sensitivity (91.47%), specificity (97.17%), and an F1 Score of 91.46%. These metrics underscore the efficacy of our approach in refining ITS radar systems, illustrating how advancements in microwave photonics can revolutionize traditional methodologies and systems.


Assuntos
Radar , Tempo (Meteorologia) , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Benchmarking , Aprendizado de Máquina
3.
Ideggyogy Sz ; 77(3-4): 77-87, 2024 Mar 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38591930

RESUMO

Background and purpose:

It is a wellknown belief that weather can influence human health, including pain sensation. However, the current data are controversial, which might be due to the wide range of interindividual differences. The present study aimed to characterize the individual pain–weather associations during chronic pain by utilizing several data analytical methods.

. Methods:

The study included 3-3 patients with (P1, P3, and P4) or without (P2, P5, P6) diabetes mellitus and signs of trigeminal neuralgia or low back pain. Subjective pain scores (0–10) and 12 weather parameters (terrestrial, geomagnetic, and solar) were recorded for one month repeated three times daily. Nonparametric Spearman’s correlation (Sp), multiple regression (Mx), and principal component (PCA) analyses were performed to evaluate associations between pain and meteorological factors obtained at the day of recorded pain value, 2 days before and 2 days after the recorded pain, and the changes in these parameters (5 × 12 parameters). Complex scores were calculated based on the results of these analyses.

. Results:

While the temperature had the highest effects on the pain levels in most of the participants, huge interindividual dif­ferences in the degree and the direction of the associations between pain and weather parameters could be obtained. The analytic methods also revealed subjectspecific results, and the synthesis of different statistical methods as total scores provided a personalized map for each patient, which showed disparate patterns across the study participants. Thus, Participants 2 and 5 had higher scores for Mx compared to Sp; furthermore, certain factors showed opposite direction in their associations with the pain level depending on the type of analysis (Sp vs Mx). In contrast, P3 had a lower score for Mx compared to Sp, which might suggest a low level of weather sensitivity on the association between the different weather parameters in this subject. Furthermore, participants P4 and P6 had a very high level of weather sensitivity, while P1 had an opposite pattern. Regarding the time point-related effects on the pain level, most patients were sensitive to parameters obtained at the same day or two days before, except the P1 subject, who had the highest sensitivity to weather parameters detected two days after.

. Conclusion:

The present study highlights the importance of integrating different data analysis approaches to elucidate the individual connections between pain and most of the weather parameters. In conclusion, complex personalized profiling should be considered for the characterization of pain–weather associations by applying different data analytical approaches, which may provide feedback to physicians and patients. 

.


Assuntos
Percepção da Dor , Tempo (Meteorologia) , Humanos , Projetos Piloto , Análise Multivariada , Dor
4.
PLoS One ; 19(4): e0299323, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38568981

RESUMO

Ester materials have become a significant topic in ecological restoration because of their degradability and lack of pollution. However, these artificial materials have issues such as high resource consumption and high cost. Therefore, finding a scientific substitute for ester materials is crucial to reduce costs. This study proposes the use of weathered red-bed soil to partially replace ester materials. Orthogonal coupled compounding and ecological effect tests were performed to analyze the soil improvement mechanism based on the mineral composition, soil structure, and electrical conductivity properties of the weathered red-bed soil. The experimental findings indicated that the soil modified using ester materials exhibited improved strength, water retention, and aeration owing to changes in the soil structure. Plant germination and height increased by 55% and 37 mm, respectively, when using a ratio of 15 g/m2 absorbent ester material, 2.5 g/m2 adhesive ester material, and 5% weathered red-bed soil. Through this approach, the amount of ester material to be used could be further reduced by 75%. The weathered red-bed soil offers improved ecological effects by altering the physical, mechanical, and hydraulic properties of the soil structure. This study presents a theoretical foundation for ecological conservation using weathered red-bed soil as a substitute for certain ester materials.


Assuntos
Solo , Tempo (Meteorologia) , Solo/química , Plantas
5.
PLoS One ; 19(4): e0301384, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38574047

RESUMO

A comprehensive analysis of outdoor weathering and soil burial of cork during 1-year experiments was carried out with measurements of CIELAB color parameters, cellular observations by scanning electron microscopy, and surface chemical features analysed by ATR-FTIR and wet chemical analysis. Cork applied in outdoor conditions above and below ground retained its physical structure and integrity without signs of deterioration or fracturing. The cellular structure was maintained with some small changes at the one-cell layer at the surface, featuring cellular expansion and minute cell wall fractures. Surface color and chemistry showed distinct results for outdoor exposure and soil burial. The weathered cork surfaces acquired a lighter color while the soil buried cork surfaces became darker. With outdoor weathering, the cork polar solubles increased (13.0% vs. 7.6% o.d. mass) while a substantial decrease of lignin occurred (about 28% of the original lignin was removed) leading to a suberin-enriched cork surface. The chemical impact on lignin is therefore responsible for the surface change towards lighter colors. Soil-burial induced hydrolysis of ester bonds of suberin and xylan, and the lignin-enriched cork surface displayed a dark brown color. FTIR and wet chemical results were consistent. Overall cork showed a considerable structural and physical stability that allows its application in outdoor conditions, namely for building façades or other surfacing applications. Architects and designers should take into account the color dynamics of the cork surfaces.


Assuntos
Lignina , Tempo (Meteorologia) , Lignina/química , Cor , Solo
6.
Sci Total Environ ; 926: 171945, 2024 May 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38531456

RESUMO

Global climate change involves various aspects of climate, including precipitation changes and declining surface wind speeds, but studies investigating biological responses have often focused on the impacts of rising temperatures. Additionally, related long-term studies on bird reproduction tend to concentrate on breeding onset, even though other aspects of breeding could also be sensitive to the diverse weather aspects. This study aimed to explore how multiple aspects of breeding (breeding onset, hatching delay, breeding season length, clutch size, fledgling number) were associated with different weather components. We used an almost four-decade-long dataset to investigate the various aspects of breeding parameters of a collared flycatcher (Ficedula albicollis) population in the Carpathian Basin. Analyses revealed some considerable associations, for example, breeding seasons lengthened with the amount of daily precipitation, and clutch size increased with the number of cool days. Parallel and opposing changes in the correlated pairs of breeding and weather parameters were also observed. The phenological mismatch between prey availability and breeding time slightly increased, and fledgling number strongly decreased with increasing mistiming. Our results highlighted the intricate interplay between climate change and the reproductive patterns of migratory birds, emphasizing the need for a holistic approach. The results also underscored the potential threats posed by climate change to bird populations and the importance of adaptive responses to changing environmental conditions.


Assuntos
Passeriformes , Aves Canoras , Animais , Aves Canoras/fisiologia , Passeriformes/fisiologia , Tempo (Meteorologia) , Estações do Ano , Mudança Climática , Reprodução , Migração Animal/fisiologia
7.
Medicina (Kaunas) ; 60(3)2024 Mar 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38541180

RESUMO

Background and Objectives: Acute coronary syndrome (ACS), a prevalent global cardiovascular disease and leading cause of mortality, is significantly correlated with meteorological factors. This study aims to analyze the impact of short-term changes in meteorological factors on the risk of ACS, both with and without ST-segment elevation, and to identify vulnerable subgroups. Materials and Methods: Daily ACS admissions and meteorological variables were collected from October 2016 to December 2021. A generalized linear model (GLM) with a Poisson distribution was employed to examine how short-term fluctuations in meteorological parameters influence ACS hospitalizations. Subgroup analyses were conducted to identify the populations most vulnerable to climate change. Results: Multiple regression analyses showed that short-term fluctuations in atmospheric pressure (≥10 mbar) and air temperature (≥5 °C) seven days prior increased the number of ACS hospitalizations by 58.7% (RR: 1.587; 95% CI: 1.501-1.679) and 55.2% (RR: 1.552; 95% CI: 1.465-1.644), respectively, notably impacting ST-segment elevation myocardial infarctions (STEMIs). The least pronounced association was observed between the daily count of ACS and the variation in relative air humidity (≥20%), resulting in an 18.4% (RR: 1.184; 95% CI: 1.091-1.286) increase in the risk of hospitalization. Subgroup analysis revealed an increased susceptibility among men and older adults to short-term variations in weather parameters. Conclusions: The findings indicate that short-term changes in weather conditions are associated with an increased risk of ACS hospitalizations, particularly STEMIs. Male and older adult patients exhibit heightened susceptibility to variations in climatic factors. Developing effective preventive strategies is imperative to alleviate the adverse consequences of these environmental risk factors.


Assuntos
Síndrome Coronariana Aguda , Infarto do Miocárdio com Supradesnível do Segmento ST , Humanos , Masculino , Idoso , Síndrome Coronariana Aguda/epidemiologia , Síndrome Coronariana Aguda/etiologia , Tempo (Meteorologia) , Hospitalização , Infarto do Miocárdio com Supradesnível do Segmento ST/etiologia , Infarto do Miocárdio com Supradesnível do Segmento ST/complicações , Temperatura
8.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38541279

RESUMO

Understanding everyday conversations about climate change may provide insights into framing the issue to promote climate change action. As part of a longitudinal online study in the US launched in June 2021, 805 respondents were asked if they had discussed climate change with a friend or family member in the prior month; if not, why not, and if yes, they were asked to delineate the conversation topic. Concurrent mixed methods were used to analyze the data. The majority (62.6%) of respondents reported not having a conversation about climate change in the prior month. Among those who indicated that they had discussed climate change, five themes were identified from the conversation topics, with many having reported discussing the impact of climate change on weather patterns. Very few discussed actions to address climate change, and most of these discussions focused on individual-level behaviors rather than collective actions. Among participants who had not recently discussed climate change, the most prevalent theme was that it was not a priority or an issue they cared about. Results suggest that conversations may not lead to collective actions and that policymakers and environmental organizations should provide guidance on effectively channeling climate change concerns into action.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Comunicação , Humanos , Tempo (Meteorologia) , Família , Pesquisa Qualitativa
9.
Sci Total Environ ; 925: 171825, 2024 May 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38513852

RESUMO

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a primary greenhouse gas that has experienced a surge in atmospheric concentration due to human activities and lifestyles. It is imperative to curtail atmospheric CO2 levels promptly to alleviate the multifaceted impacts of climate warming. The soil serves as a natural reservoir for CO2 sequestration. The scientific premise of this study is that CO2 sequestration in agriculturally relevant, organically-deficient saline soil can be achieved by incorporating alkaline earth silicates. Volcanic ash (VA) was used as a soil amendment for CO2 removal from saline soil by leveraging enhanced silicate rock weathering (ERW). The study pursued two primary objectives: first, we aimed to evaluate the impact of various doses of VA, employed as an amendment for organically-deficient soil, on the growth performance of key cultivated crops (sorghum and mung bean) in inland saline-alkaline agricultural regions of northeastern China. Second, we aimed to assess alterations in the physical properties of the amended soil through mineralogical examinations, utilizing X-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (SEM-EDS) analyses, quantifying the increase in inorganic carbon content within the soil. In the potting tests, mung bean plant height exhibited a noteworthy increase of approximately 41 % with the addition of 10 % VA. Sorghum plant height and aboveground and belowground biomass dry weights increased with VA application across all tested doses. At the optimal VA application rate (20 %), the sorghum achieved a CO2 sequestration rate of 0.14 kg CO2·m-2·month-1. XRD and SEM-EDS analyses confirmed that the augmented inorganic carbon in the VA-amended soils stemmed primarily from calcite accumulation. These findings contribute to elucidating the mechanism underlying VA as an amendment for organically-deficient soils and provide an effective approach for enhancing the carbon sink capacity of saline soils.


Assuntos
Solo , Sorghum , Humanos , Solo/química , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Erupções Vulcânicas , Agricultura , Tempo (Meteorologia) , Grão Comestível/química , Sequestro de Carbono , Silicatos
11.
Accid Anal Prev ; 200: 107540, 2024 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38479204

RESUMO

As the detrimental impact of the commonly recommended centered driving mode for autonomous trucks on road longevity is gaining attention, more lateral control modes are being proposed to enhance road sustainability. However, there is currently a lack of research on the lateral safety analysis of autonomous trucks with different lateral control modes, especially in complex driving scenarios (such as overtaking) and adverse weather conditions. Therefore, this study developed a safety assessment framework to comparatively analyze the risk probability differences in lateral accidents during overtaking maneuvers by autonomous trucks with different lateral control modes under adverse weather conditions. Based on aerodynamics and vehicle dynamics simulations to capture the multifactorial influences on truck lateral deviation, the results are used for model validation and training. In the reliability approach, Support Vector Machine Regression (SVR) is introduced to establish the SVR response surface model with optimal predictive performance, and combined with Monte Carlo simulations for safety assessment, quantifying safety indices. The results indicate that trucks being overtaken during overtaking maneuvers are more prone to lateral accidents under crosswind influences. The overall impact of lateral control modes on the lateral safety trends is minor. Compared to other lateral control modes, following the centered zero-drift mode is generally safer. However, in conditions of low wind speeds (below 20 km/h) or on highly slippery road surfaces (road friction coefficient below 0.1), autonomous trucks following a uniform distribution mode can better maintain a low-risk level. This study provides crucial insights for future considerations integrating road longevity and truck safety in a collaborative manner, and the proposed methodology has broad applications.


Assuntos
Acidentes de Trânsito , Condução de Veículo , Humanos , Acidentes de Trânsito/prevenção & controle , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Veículos Automotores , Tempo (Meteorologia)
12.
PLoS One ; 19(3): e0299363, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38478477

RESUMO

Global, spatially interpolated climate datasets such as WorldClim and CHELSA, widely used in research, are based on station data, which are rare in tropical mountains. However, such biodiversity hotspots are of high ecological interest and require accurate data. Therefore, the quality of such gridded datasets needs to be assessed. This poses a kind of dilemma, as proving the reliability of these potentially weakly modelled data is usually not possible due to the lack of stations. Using a unique climate dataset with 170 stations, mainly from the montane and alpine zones of sixteen mountains in Tanzania including Kilimanjaro, we show that the accuracy of such datasets is very poor. Not only is the maximum amount of mean annual precipitation drastically underestimated (partly more than 50%), but also the elevation of the precipitation maximum deviates up to 850m. Our results show that, at least in tropical regions, they should be used with greater caution than before.


Assuntos
Clima , Tempo (Meteorologia) , Temperatura , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Tanzânia , Clima Tropical
13.
Water Sci Technol ; 89(5): 1312-1324, 2024 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38483500

RESUMO

Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) are under increasing pressure to enhance resource efficiency and reduce emissions into water bodies. The separation of urine within the catchment area may be an alternative to mitigate the need for costly expansions of central WWTPs. While previous investigations assumed a spatially uniform implementation of urine separation across the catchment area, the present study focuses on an adapted stochastic wastewater generation model, which allows the simulation of various wastewater streams (e.g., urine) on a household level. This enables the non-uniform separation of urine across a catchment area. The model is part of a holistic modelling framework to determine the influence of targeted urine separation in catchments on the operation and emissions of central WWTPs, which will be briefly introduced. The wastewater generation model is validated through an extensive sampling and measurement series. Results based on observed and simulated wastewater quantity and quality for a catchment area of 366 residents for two dry weather days indicate the suitability of the model for wastewater generation and transport modelling. Based on this, four scenarios for urine separation were defined. The results indicate a potential influence of spatial distribution on the peaks of total nitrogen and total phosphorus.


Assuntos
Nitrogênio , Águas Residuárias , Simulação por Computador , Fósforo , Tempo (Meteorologia)
14.
Malar J ; 23(1): 78, 2024 Mar 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38491345

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Vegetation health (VH) is a powerful characteristic for forecasting malaria incidence in regions where the disease is prevalent. This study aims to determine how vegetation health affects the prevalence of malaria and create seasonal weather forecasts using NOAA/AVHRR environmental satellite data that can be substituted for malaria epidemic forecasts. METHODS: Weekly advanced very high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data were retrieved from the NOAA satellite website from 2009 to 2021. The monthly number of malaria cases was collected from the Ministry of Health of Benin from 2009 to 2021 and matched with AVHRR data. Pearson correlation was calculated to investigate the impact of vegetation health on malaria transmission. Ordinary least squares (OLS), support vector machine (SVM) and principal component regression (PCR) were applied to forecast the monthly number of cases of malaria in Northern Benin. A random sample of proposed models was used to assess accuracy and bias. RESULTS: Estimates place the annual percentage rise in malaria cases at 9.07% over 2009-2021 period. Moisture (VCI) for weeks 19-21 predicts 75% of the number of malaria cases in the month of the start of high mosquito activities. Soil temperature (TCI) and vegetation health index (VHI) predicted one month earlier than the start of mosquito activities through transmission, 78% of monthly malaria incidence. CONCLUSIONS: SVM model D is more effective than OLS model A in the prediction of malaria incidence in Northern Benin. These models are a very useful tool for stakeholders looking to lessen the impact of malaria in Benin.


Assuntos
Malária , Mosquitos Vetores , Animais , Humanos , Benin/epidemiologia , Malária/epidemiologia , Tempo (Meteorologia) , África Ocidental/epidemiologia
15.
PLoS One ; 19(3): e0300229, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38502675

RESUMO

Accurate short-term load forecasting is of great significance in improving the dispatching efficiency of power grids, ensuring the safe and reliable operation of power grids, and guiding power systems to formulate reasonable production plans and reduce waste of resources. However, the traditional short-term load forecasting method has limited nonlinear mapping ability and weak generalization ability to unknown data, and it is prone to the loss of time series information, further suggesting that its forecasting accuracy can still be improved. This study presents a short-term power load forecasting method based on Bagging-stochastic configuration networks (SCNs). First, the missing values in the original data are filled with the average values. Second, the influencing factors, such as the weather- and week-type data, are coded. Then, combined with the data of influencing factors after coding, the Bagging-SCNs integration algorithm is used to predict the short-term load. Finally, by taking the daily load data of Quanzhou City, Zhejiang Province as an example, the program of the abovementioned method is compiled in Python language and then compared with the long short-term memory neural network algorithm and the single-SCNs algorithm. Simulation results show that the proposed method for medium- and short-term load forecasting has a high forecasting accuracy and a significant effect on improving the accuracy of load forecasting.


Assuntos
Algoritmos , Redes Neurais de Computação , Tempo (Meteorologia) , Previsões , Simulação por Computador
16.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 6622, 2024 03 19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38503812

RESUMO

Increasing urbanization coupled with spatial expansion and numerical increase of New World vulture populations has engendered a rise in human-vulture conflict, creating a need for effective tools to mitigate vulture-related damage. Visual frightening devices that mimic the presence of human or other predators can be employed in human-vulture conflict scenarios to increase perceived risk by the pest species, thereby eliciting an antipredator behavioral response, such as fleeing. One visual frightening device, inflatable scarecrows, recently proved effective at reducing passerine attendance at feral swine feeders, but their effectiveness when directed at other species and conflict scenarios has varied. Our primary objective was to evaluate an inflatable deterrent for reducing the number of black (Coragyps atratus) and turkey vultures (Cathartes aura) present (hereafter abundance) at 13 human-vulture conflict sites throughout the southeastern United States. We predicted that vulture abundance would be substantially reduced when inflatable deterrents were deployed. Because we suspected other factors might also influence vulture site abundance, we also examined the exploratory variables of weather, site size (area), and vulture tolerance to human approach in relation to vulture site abundance using a model selection approach. Black vulture site abundance was more pervasive than turkey vultures, occurring at all sites and accounting for 85% of daily vulture counts (10.78 ± 0.52 vultures/site/day) whereas turkey vultures were only present at 62% of sites (2.12 ± 0.21). Across all sites, inflatable scarecrows were effective at reducing vulture abundance by 82% during the seventeen-day treatment period when deterrents were deployed (3.50 ± 0.20), but only a 48% reduction during the twenty-one-day post-treatment phase (15.34 ± 1.39) was observed. Site size and weather did not influence tool effectiveness. Human tolerance at sites, as determined by vulture flight initiation distance, was influential, with tool effectiveness being reduced at sites where local human tolerance was high. We recommend inflatable scarecrows as a tool to reduce vulture-wildlife conflict to private property and recreation at sites where the conflict is spatially restricted (e.g., parking lot or recreation area), conducive to scarecrow deployment (e.g., flat stable surfaces), and where vulture site human tolerance is low to moderate.


Assuntos
Animais Selvagens , Falconiformes , Humanos , Animais , Suínos , Sudeste dos Estados Unidos , Tempo (Meteorologia)
17.
Behav Processes ; 216: 105014, 2024 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38461866

RESUMO

Dogs are used for oil detection to support spill remediation and conservation, but little is known about the effects of weathering and aging of oil odorants on dogs' ability to generalize and discriminate unweathered oil from aged/weathered tar ball oil. Three dogs were trained to detect unweathered oil odorant using a three-alternative choice procedure and automated olfactometers. We evaluated dogs' ability to discriminate unweathered target oil from four different weathered/tar ball samples. All three dogs successfully discriminated the unweathered target oil from the four nontarget weathered oils with an accuracy of 96%, 97%, and 100%. After the oil discrimination test, dogs' ability to discriminate unweathered target oil from novel natural odorants on a beach (plastic bottle lid, bird feathers, and rocks) was tested in a novel discrimination test yielding an accuracy of 95%, 100%, and 100%. These data suggest dogs are successful in discriminating unweathered oil from weathered oil with explicit training.


Assuntos
Óleos , Cães Trabalhadores , Animais , Cães , Odorantes , Tempo (Meteorologia)
18.
J Safety Res ; 88: 336-343, 2024 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38485376

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Continuing flight into adverse weather remains a significant problem in general aviation (GA) safety. A variety of experiential, cognitive, and motivational factors have been suggested as explanations. Previous research has shown that adverse weather accidents occur further into planned flights than other types of accident, suggesting that previous investment of time and effort might be a contributing factor. The aim of this study was to experimentally determine the effect of prior commitment on general aviation pilots' decision-making and risk-taking in simulated VFR flights. METHOD: Thirty-six licensed pilots 'flew' two simulated flights designed to simulate an encounter with deteriorating coastal weather and a developing extensive cloud base underneath the aircraft as it crossed a mountain range. After making a decision to continue or discontinue the flight, pilots completed a range of risk perception, risk taking, and situational awareness measures. RESULTS: Visual flight rules were violated in 42% of the flights. Prior commitment, in terms of distance already flown, led to an increased tendency to continue the flight into adverse weather in the coastal 'scud running' scenario. Continuing pilots perceived the risks differently and showed greater risk tolerance than others. These 'bolder' pilots also tended to be more active and better qualified than the others. CONCLUSIONS: There are undoubtedly multiple factors underlying any individual decision to continue or discontinue a flight. The willingness to tolerate a higher level of risk seems to be one such factor. This willingness can increase with time invested in the flight and also seems to be related to individual flight qualifications and experience. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: All pilots might benefit from carefully structured simulator sessions designed to safely teach practical risk management strategies with clear and immediate feedback.


Assuntos
Acidentes Aeronáuticos , Aviação , Humanos , Acidentes Aeronáuticos/prevenção & controle , Tomada de Decisões , Tempo (Meteorologia) , Aeronaves
19.
J Emerg Manag ; 22(1): 33-44, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38533698

RESUMO

Hurricane Laura began as a disorganized tropical depression in August 2020. Early forecast guidance showed that the tropical cyclone could either completely dissipate or strengthen to a major hurricane as it approached the United States Gulf Coast. While this uncertainty was known by meteorologists, it was not necessarily communicated to the public in a direct manner. As it turned out, the worst-case scenario was the correct one. The tropical depression rapidly intensified and made landfall near Cameron, Louisiana, with sustained winds of 150 mph, making Laura a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Laura's rapid intensification caught some people off guard. Ideally, weather forecasts would have begun warning Louisiana residents to prepare for the possibility of a devastating hurricane in the early stages of tropical cyclone development. No one is suggesting that meteorologists did anything wrong. However, with the benefit of hindsight and decades of scholarly research in risk communication, we can speculate how an ideal forecast would have been written. This paper demonstrates that there are some simple considerations that could be made that might better alert the public to future hurricane worst-case scenarios, even in uncertain situations.


Assuntos
Tempestades Ciclônicas , Estados Unidos , Humanos , Estações do Ano , Louisiana , Tempo (Meteorologia) , Vento
20.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 6992, 2024 03 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38523138

RESUMO

Cabernet Sauvignon is the most planted cultivar in Lebanese vineyards. This study investigated the variation of its production at two vineyards 'Kanafar' (West Bekaa at 1020 m.a.s.l) and 'Taanayel' (Central Bekaa at 800 m.a.s.l) and their interactions with weather conditions from 2006 till 2018. Evaluation of climate records denoted interannual variability in weather conditions occurring in 2015 in Kanafar and in 2008 in Taanayel. Average yield peaked in 2009 in Kanafar (19,187.0 kg ha-1) and in 2011 in Taanayel (14,279.0 kg ha-1), both years marked a turning point after which values of average yield shifted downwards (by 31-67% in Kanafar, and 14-82% in Taanayel). At Kanafar, after 2015, averages of yield, weight of 200 berries (W200B), potential alcohol (PA), and total polyphenolic richness (TPR) decreased by 35%, 1.5%, 36.2 g, and 50%, respectively. In Taanayel, only TPR content in berries was significantly affected by varying weather conditions (decrease by 20%). Also, TPR values followed a progressive decreasing pattern starting from 2006 at both vineyards with minor exceptions. Multiple regression analysis assessed the relationship between various indicators and weather variables at each vineyard. It showed that the decrease in yield at Kanafar correlated with higher temperature during the growing season (by 0.6 °C), higher solar radiation from early-spring to early-summer (by 13.9-27.1 W m-2), and lower values of maximum wind speed during mid to late summer (by 0.4 m s-1), occurring during 2016, 2017, and 2018 at Kanafar. The model explained 60% of yield variations at this vineyard. Further, weather variables accounted for 61% (R2 = 0.61) of changes in PA and for 58% (R2 = 0.58) of TPR of berries at Kanafar. Conclusively, interannual variability in weather conditions had more serious negative influence on Cabernet Sauvignon production at Kanafar than at Taanayel, but had a similar negative influence on polyphenols accumulation in berries, and thus on potential wine quality produced at both vineyards.


Assuntos
Vitis , Vinho , Frutas , Líbano , Tempo (Meteorologia)
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